Dolphins vs Colts prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stIND 42-yd field goal 0–3
2. 2ndMIA Wright 42-yd TD run 7–3
3. 2ndIND Jones to Warren, 5-yd TD 7–10
4. 3rdIND Jones to Treadwell, 33-yd TD 7–17
5. 4thIND 20-yd field goal 7–20
6. 4thMIA Gordon 2-yd TD run 14–20
7. 4thIND 34-yd field goal 14–23

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Dolphins start Kyle McCord, who took 0% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Colts use play action on 27% of dropbacks (5th-most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Dolphins: QB McCord · Douglas 24% of targets · Washington 22% of targets · Dulcich 20% of targets · Gordon 67% of carries. Back: Douglas (missed 3 of 8). Out: Malik Willis

   Colts: QB Jones · Warren 38% of targets · Taylor 20% of targets · Treadwell 19% of targets · Taylor 55% of carries. Back: Warren (missed 2 of 9)

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Through the air. Dolphins complete −2.6 pts more passes than expected (the worst). Colts allow −1.1 pts vs expected (9th-least generous).

   After the catch. Dolphins gain +0.0 yards after the catch vs expected (11th of 32). Colts allow +0.3 (4th-worst tackling).

   On the ground. Dolphins average 4.3 yards a carry (11th of 32). Colts allow 4.4 (8th-most).

   McCord's pocket: scrambles on 5.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Gordon to the left: 4.4 yards a carry there (34% of his runs), and Colts give up +0.4 yards a carry on that side.

   Douglas draws 24% of the Dolphins targets and averages 3.6 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Jones vs the blitz: 5.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Dolphins blitz on 29% of dropbacks (20th of 32).

   Jones's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.78 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Taylor to the right: 3.9 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Dolphins give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Warren draws 38% of the Colts targets and averages 3.4 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Kyle McCord's numbers rest on 0 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Douglas leads the Dolphins in receiving yards in 45% of sims.

   McCord throws for 300+ in 7%.

   Gordon runs for 100+ in 31%.

   Gordon scores a touchdown in 50%, the likeliest on his team.

   Warren leads the Colts in receiving yards in 62% of sims.

   Jones throws for 300+ in 8%.

   Taylor runs for 100+ in 16%.

   Taylor scores a touchdown in 51%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Dolphins run for 150+ yards (30% of sims), they win 80%, up from 48%.

   When Colts run for 150+ yards (28% of sims), they win 84%, up from 50%.

   When Gordon runs for 110+ (25% of sims), they win 81%, up from 48%.

7. Reality check

   Dolphins score 15.8 a game (last 8). In the sims: 21.5 against this defense.

   Colts score 20.4 a game (last 9). In the sims: 21.9 against this defense.

   McCord: 0 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 203.

   Douglas: 3.8 catches, 59.2 yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 4.2, 62.

   Gordon: 66.1 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 83.

   Jones: 194.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 204.

   Warren: 5.8 catches, 43.7 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 8.1, 80.

   Taylor: 69.8 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 63.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Colts win 50% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (IND −3.5): the Colts cover in 42%.

   Total 38.5: over in 63%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Tyler Warren3+ catches
     97%of sims
     92Our Rating
     95%books imply
   • Jonathan Taylor40+ rush yds
     70%of sims
     92Our Rating
     86%books imply
   • Jonathan Taylor2+ catches
     92%of sims
     90Our Rating
     88%books imply
   • Tyler Warren20+ rec yds
     96%of sims
     84Our Rating
     91%books imply
   • Jonathan Taylor70+ rush + rec yds
     72%of sims
     83Our Rating