Cowboys vs Eagles prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stPHI McKee to Cooper, 11-yd TD 0–7
2. 1stDAL Williams 2-yd TD run 7–7
3. 1stPHI 23-yd field goal 7–10
4. 2ndDAL Prescott to Lamb, 1-yd TD 14–10
5. 3rdPHI 48-yd field goal 14–13
6. 4thPHI McKee to Cooper, 1-yd TD 21–20
7. 4thDAL 59-yd field goal 24–20

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Eagles start Tanner McKee, who took 16% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

2. Who's in the sim

   Cowboys: QB Prescott · Lamb 30% of targets · Pickens 22% of targets · Flournoy 16% of targets · Williams 79% of carries

   Eagles: QB McKee · Lemon 28% of targets · Goedert 28% of targets · Cooper 18% of targets · Barkley 52% of carries. Out: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Tank Bigsby

3. What's mapped in

   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   The pass rush. Cowboys take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (the fewest). Eagles get home on 6% (4th-fewest), blitzing on 27% of dropbacks.

   Takeaways. Cowboys throw an interception on 2% of passes (13th of 32). Eagles pick off 2% (10th-fewest).

   Prescott vs the blitz: 6.7 yards a dropback (league 6.0). Eagles blitz on 27% of dropbacks (7th-fewest).

   Prescott's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.78 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.7% of dropbacks (league 5.8%).

   Williams to the left: 4.6 yards a carry there (36% of his runs), and Eagles give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Lamb draws 30% of the Cowboys targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   McKee vs the blitz: 3.8 yards a dropback (league 6.0). Cowboys blitz on 28% of dropbacks (11th-fewest).

   McKee's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.56 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.4% of dropbacks (league 5.8%). Cowboys let quarterbacks escape 20% more often than average.

   Barkley to the left: 4.5 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Cowboys give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Lemon draws 28% of the Eagles targets and averages 2.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Tanner McKee's numbers rest on 97 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Lamb leads the Cowboys in receiving yards in 51% of sims.

   Prescott throws for 300+ in 20%.

   Williams runs for 100+ in 26%.

   Williams scores a touchdown in 53%, the likeliest on his team.

   Goedert leads the Eagles in receiving yards in 43% of sims.

   McKee throws for 300+ in 13%.

   Barkley runs for 100+ in 16%.

   Cooper scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Eagles run for 150+ yards (27% of sims), they win 83%, up from 48%.

   When Cowboys run for 130+ yards (31% of sims), they win 83%, up from 50%.

   When Williams runs for 100+ (26% of sims), they win 83%, up from 50%.

7. Reality check

   Cowboys score 25.2 a game (last 6). In the sims: 23.2 against this defense.

   Eagles score 17.7 a game (last 6). In the sims: 22.9 against this defense.

   Prescott: 252 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 241.

   Lamb: 6.8 catches, 78.6 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 6.2, 79.

   Williams: 53 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 76.

   McKee: 228 pass yds a game (last 2). In the sims: 225.

   Goedert: 4 catches, 37.6 yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 6.4, 71.

   Barkley: 50 rush yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 63.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Cowboys win 50% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (DAL −4.5): the Cowboys cover in 39%.

   Total 43.5: over in 57%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Dameon Pierce20+ rush yds
     71%of sims
     52%books imply
   • Dallas Goedert60+ rec yds
     57%of sims
     40%books imply
   • Tanner McKee225+ pass + rush yds
     61%of sims
     44%books imply
   • Makai Lemon5+ catches
     60%of sims
     46%books imply
   • Makai Lemon50+ rec yds
     53%of sims
     40%books imply