Cowboys vs Colts prediction
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cowboys 20, Colts 19.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cowboys won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Dak Prescott Cowboys 279 pass yds
- Javonte Williams Cowboys 40 rush yds · 2 TD
- CeeDee Lamb Cowboys 10 rec · 145 yds
- Daniel Jones Colts 266 pass yds · 2 TD
- Jonathan Taylor Colts 95 rush yds
- Keenan Allen Colts 8 rec · 104 yds · 1 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stIND 32-yd field goal 0–3
- 1stIND Jones to Allen, 31-yd TD 0–9
- 2ndDAL Williams 2-yd TD run 7–9
- 2ndIND Jones to Warren, 4-yd TD 7–16
- 3rdDAL Williams 1-yd TD run 14–16
- 3rdIND 26-yd field goal 14–19
- 4thDAL 25-yd field goal 17–19
- 4thDAL 32-yd field goal 20–19
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/32 | 279 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 40 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 16 | 145 | 0 | 55 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 21 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 13 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 34 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Tyler Goodson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 24/34 | 266 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 95 | 0 |
| DJ Giddens | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Seth McGowan | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 10 | 104 | 1 | 31 |
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 | 17 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 19 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 25 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| Deion Burks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Colts use play action on 26% of dropbacks (5th-most).
Who's in the sim
Cowboys: QB Prescott · Lamb 32% of targets · Pickens 21% of targets · Flournoy 18% of targets · Williams 66% of carries
Colts: QB Jones · Warren 23% of targets · Allen 20% of targets · Downs 19% of targets · Taylor 56% of carries. Back: Warren (missed 2 of 8)
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
On the ground. Colts average 4.3 yards a carry (11th of 32). Cowboys allow 4.7 (the most).
Takeaways. Cowboys throw an interception on 2% of passes (7th-fewest). Colts pick off 2% (6th-fewest).
The pass rush. Cowboys take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest). Colts get home on 6% (13th of 32), blitzing on 27% of dropbacks.
Prescott vs the blitz: 6.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Colts blitz on 27% of dropbacks (8th-fewest).
Prescott's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.79 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Williams to the left: 4.8 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Colts give up +0.4 yards a carry on that side.
Lamb draws 32% of the Cowboys targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Jones vs the blitz: 5.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Cowboys blitz on 27% of dropbacks (7th-fewest).
Jones's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.77 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Cowboys let quarterbacks escape 16% more often than average.
Taylor to the left: 4.2 yards a carry there (34% of his runs), and Cowboys give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Warren draws 23% of the Colts targets and averages 3.4 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Lamb leads the Cowboys in receiving yards in 51% of sims.
Prescott throws for 300+ in 28%.
Williams runs for 100+ in 25%.
Williams scores a touchdown in 56%, the likeliest on his team.
Warren leads the Colts in receiving yards in 35% of sims.
Jones throws for 300+ in 13%.
Taylor runs for 100+ in 26%.
Taylor scores a touchdown in 57%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Colts run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 85%, up from 48%.
When Cowboys run for 140+ yards (28% of sims), they win 86%, up from 51%.
When Williams runs for 100+ (25% of sims), they win 85%, up from 51%.
Reality check
Cowboys score 27.4 a game (last 8). In the sims: 25.2 against this defense.
Colts score 20.1 a game (last 8). In the sims: 24.9 against this defense.
Prescott: 255.8 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 256.
Lamb: 7.5 catches, 88.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 6.7, 87.
Williams: 66 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 75.
Jones: 192.8 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 226.
Allen: 5.1 catches, 46.4 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.4, 47.
Taylor: 76.2 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 76.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cowboys win 51% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (DAL −6): the Cowboys cover in 35%.
Total 51.5: over in 44%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NFL board
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.