Commanders vs Giants prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stWAS 56-yd field goal 3–0
2. 2ndWAS 45-yd field goal 6–0
3. 2ndWAS Daniels to Ekeler, 3-yd TD 14–0
4. 2ndNYG McCarthy to Nabers, 23-yd TD 14–7
5. 3rdNYG Safety 14–9
6. 3rdWAS 25-yd field goal 17–9
7. 4thNYG McCarthy to Likely, 3-yd TD 17–17
8. 4thWAS White 3-yd TD run 24–17
9. 4thWAS 44-yd field goal 27–17

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Giants start J.J. McCarthy, who took 15% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Commanders blitz on 36% of dropbacks (4th-most in the NFL).

   Giants blitz on 36% of dropbacks (3rd-most in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   Commanders: QB Daniels · Diggs 21% of targets · Okonkwo 18% of targets · Williams 16% of targets · White 46% of carries. Back: Ekeler (missed 3 of 8), Okonkwo (missed 2 of 8)

   Giants: QB McCarthy · Nabers 28% of targets · Likely 26% of targets · Fields 17% of targets · Skattebo 46% of carries. Back: Singletary (missed 3 of 8). Out: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   Takeaways. Commanders throw an interception on 1% of passes (3rd-fewest). Giants pick off 2% (13th of 32).

   After the catch. Commanders gain −0.3 yards after the catch vs expected (9th-worst). Giants allow −0.3 (8th-best tackling).

   On the ground. Commanders average 4.1 yards a carry (18th of 32). Giants allow 4.6 (3rd-most).

   Daniels vs the blitz: 6.8 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Giants blitz on 36% of dropbacks (3rd-most).

   Daniels's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.81 seconds on average, scrambles on 11.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   White to the right: 4.3 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Giants give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Diggs draws 21% of the Commanders targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   McCarthy vs the blitz: 5.7 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Commanders blitz on 36% of dropbacks (4th-most).

   McCarthy's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.97 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.6% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Skattebo to the left: 4.9 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Commanders give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Nabers draws 28% of the Giants targets and averages 3.0 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Diggs leads the Commanders in receiving yards in 37% of sims.

   Daniels throws for 300+ in 6%.

   White runs for 100+ in 17%.

   White scores a touchdown in 51%, the likeliest on his team.

   Nabers leads the Giants in receiving yards in 43% of sims.

   McCarthy throws for 300+ in 12%.

   Skattebo runs for 100+ in 11%.

   Likely scores a touchdown in 38%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Giants run for 130+ yards (32% of sims), they win 70%, up from 40%.

   When Commanders run for 180+ yards (28% of sims), they win 87%, up from 59%.

   When White runs for 90+ (23% of sims), they win 88%, up from 59%.

7. Reality check

   Commanders score 21.5 a game (last 8). In the sims: 24.4 against this defense.

   Giants score 22.8 a game (last 8). In the sims: 20.8 against this defense.

   Daniels: 208.3 pass yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 199.

   Diggs: 4.3 catches, 43.3 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.4, 50.

   White: 32.6 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 65.

   McCarthy: 207.3 pass yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 218.

   Nabers: 6.6 catches, 81 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.2, 66.

   Skattebo: 69.7 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 54.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Commanders win 59% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (NYG −1.5): the Giants cover in 38%.

   Total 40.5: over in 62%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Rachaad White1+ catches
     90%of sims
     90Our Rating
     92%books imply
   • Malachi Fields10+ rec yds
     84%of sims
     87Our Rating
     82%books imply
   • Malachi Fields2+ catches
     74%of sims
     87Our Rating
     69%books imply
   • Malik Nabers2+ catches
     94%of sims
     87Our Rating
   • Stefon Diggs3+ catches
     76%of sims
     86Our Rating
     82%books imply