Chiefs vs Falcons prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stKC 30-yd field goal 3–0
2. 1stKC Mahomes to Kelce, 1-yd TD 10–0
3. 2ndATL Penix 1-yd TD run 10–7
4. 2ndKC Mahomes 2-yd TD run 17–7
5. 3rdKC Mahomes to Rice, 4-yd TD 24–7
6. 3rdATL Penix to Pitts, 35-yd TD 24–14
7. 4thKC Mahomes to Kelce, 7-yd TD 31–14
8. 4thATL Robinson 1-yd TD run 31–21

Box score

The breakdown

1. Who's in the sim

   Chiefs: QB Mahomes · Worthy 22% of targets · Rice 22% of targets · Kelce 21% of targets · Johnson 63% of carries. Back: Rice (missed 2 of 8). Out: Kenneth Walker III

   Falcons: QB Penix · London 25% of targets · Pitts 19% of targets · Dotson 14% of targets · Robinson 79% of carries

2. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

3. What decides it

   On the ground. Chiefs average 4.6 yards a carry (5th-best). Falcons allow 4.5 (5th-most).

   Through the air. Falcons complete −2.6 pts more passes than expected (3rd-worst). Chiefs allow −1.3 pts vs expected (7th-least generous).

   The pass rush. Falcons take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (8th-fewest). Chiefs get home on 6% (5th-fewest), blitzing on 32% of dropbacks.

   Mahomes vs the blitz: 6.9 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Falcons blitz on 30% of dropbacks (18th of 32).

   Mahomes's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.75 seconds on average, scrambles on 6.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Falcons let quarterbacks escape 17% less often than average.

   Johnson up the middle: 5.5 yards a carry there (43% of his runs), and Falcons give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Rice draws 22% of the Chiefs targets and averages 3.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Penix vs the blitz: 5.9 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Chiefs blitz on 32% of dropbacks (10th-most).

   Penix's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.68 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Robinson to the right: 5.4 yards a carry there (33% of his runs), and Chiefs give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   London draws 25% of the Falcons targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

4. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Kelce leads the Chiefs in receiving yards in 33% of sims.

   Mahomes throws for 300+ in 23%.

   Johnson runs for 100+ in 29%.

   Johnson scores a touchdown in 55%, the likeliest on his team.

   London leads the Falcons in receiving yards in 45% of sims.

   Penix throws for 300+ in 9%.

   Robinson runs for 100+ in 36%.

   Robinson scores a touchdown in 55%, the likeliest on his team.

5. What swings it

   When Robinson runs for 120+ (23% of sims), they win 68%, up from 32%.

   When Falcons run for 140+ yards (28% of sims), they win 65%, up from 32%.

   When Chiefs run for 160+ yards (29% of sims), they win 92%, up from 66%.

6. Reality check

   Chiefs score 25.2 a game (last 8). In the sims: 27.3 against this defense.

   Falcons score 20.9 a game (last 9). In the sims: 21.2 against this defense.

   Mahomes: 254.6 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 246.

   Kelce: 4.1 catches, 60.2 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.8, 60.

   Ott: 19 rush yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 25.

   Penix: 206.3 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 210.

   London: 5.2 catches, 84.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.7, 59.

   Robinson: 99.6 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 88.

7. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Chiefs win 66% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (KC −3): the Chiefs cover in 59%.

   Total 47.5: over in 51%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

8. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Bijan Robinson2+ catches
     78%of sims
     92Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • Xavier Worthy2+ catches
     91%of sims
     87Our Rating
     80%books imply
   • Kyle Pitts10+ rec yds
     89%of sims
     87Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • Patrick Mahomes175+ pass yds
     86%of sims
     87Our Rating
     88%books imply
   • Kyle Pitts2+ catches
     87%of sims
     86Our Rating
     94%books imply