Chargers vs Ravens prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stBAL 29-yd field goal 0–3
2. 1stLAC Herbert 1-yd TD run 7–3
3. 2ndBAL Safety 7–5
4. 2ndBAL 34-yd field goal 7–8
5. 2ndLAC Herbert to Gadsden, 7-yd TD 14–8
6. 3rdBAL Henry 1-yd TD run 14–15
7. 3rdLAC 58-yd field goal 17–15
8. 3rdBAL Henry 14-yd TD run 17–21
9. 3rdLAC 51-yd field goal 20–21

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Ravens start Jacoby Brissett, who took 0% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Chargers blitz on 26% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   Chargers: QB Herbert · Gadsden 16% of targets · McConkey 13% of targets · Johnston 13% of targets · Hampton 40% of carries. Back: McConkey (missed 2 of 8)

   Ravens: QB Brissett · Flowers 26% of targets · Andrews 17% of targets · Hill 13% of targets · Henry 64% of carries. Out: Tyler Huntley

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   On the ground. Chargers average 4.0 yards a carry (9th-worst). Ravens allow 3.9 (4th-fewest).

   After the catch. Ravens gain +0.1 yards after the catch vs expected (10th-best). Chargers allow +0.1 (7th-worst tackling).

   Takeaways. Ravens throw an interception on 2% of passes (20th of 32). Chargers pick off 3% (4th-most).

   Herbert vs the blitz: 6.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Ravens blitz on 32% of dropbacks (12th of 32).

   Herbert's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.85 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.2% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Hampton to the right: 4.5 yards a carry there (31% of his runs), and Ravens give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Gadsden draws 16% of the Chargers targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Brissett vs the blitz: 5.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Chargers blitz on 26% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest).

   Brissett's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.76 seconds on average, scrambles on 3.9% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Henry to the right: 4.3 yards a carry there (40% of his runs), and Chargers give up −0.0 yards a carry on that side.

   Flowers draws 26% of the Ravens targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Gadsden leads the Chargers in receiving yards in 24% of sims.

   Herbert throws for 300+ in 8%.

   Hampton runs for 100+ in 4%.

   Gadsden scores a touchdown in 33%, the likeliest on his team.

   Flowers leads the Ravens in receiving yards in 55% of sims.

   Brissett throws for 300+ in 7%.

   Henry runs for 100+ in 29%.

   Henry scores a touchdown in 54%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Chargers run for 130+ yards (28% of sims), they win 69%, up from 40%.

   When Ravens run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 89%, up from 59%.

   When Henry runs for 110+ (22% of sims), they win 87%, up from 59%.

7. Reality check

   Chargers score 15.1 a game (last 8). In the sims: 20.2 against this defense.

   Ravens score 21 a game (last 9). In the sims: 23.5 against this defense.

   Herbert: 198.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 206.

   McConkey: 2.8 catches, 47.7 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 2.4, 31.

   Hampton: 46.1 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 37.

   Brissett: 0 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 203.

   Flowers: 5.4 catches, 66.3 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.9, 63.

   Henry: 68.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 79.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Ravens win 59% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (BAL −4.5): the Ravens cover in 48%.

   Total 38.5: over in 64%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Ladd McConkey1+ catches
     88%of sims
     88Our Rating
   • Quentin Johnston1+ catches
     86%of sims
     85Our Rating
   • Tre Harris1+ catches
     87%of sims
     85Our Rating
   • Justin Herbert150+ pass yds
     81%of sims
     85Our Rating
     84%books imply
   • Oronde Gadsden II1+ catches
     93%of sims
     82Our Rating