Cardinals vs Seahawks prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stSEA Darnold to Smith-Njigba, 23-yd TD 0–7
2. 1stARI 55-yd field goal 3–7
3. 2ndARI 33-yd field goal 6–7
4. 2ndARI 43-yd field goal 9–7
5. 2ndSEA Darnold to Smith-Njigba, 10-yd TD 9–14
6. 3rdARI 35-yd field goal 12–14
7. 4thSEA Darnold 8-yd TD run 12–21
8. 4thARI Knight 2-yd TD run 19–21

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Cardinals start Gardner Minshew, who took 4% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Seahawks blitz on 26% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   Cardinals: QB Minshew · McBride 33% of targets · Wilson 30% of targets · Allgeier 11% of targets · Allgeier 45% of carries. Back: Knight (missed 2 of 8). Out: Kendrick Bourne, Jeremiyah Love, Jalen Brooks

   Seahawks: QB Darnold · Smith-Njigba 30% of targets · Barner 15% of targets · Kupp 12% of targets · Wilson 32% of carries. Back: Charbonnet (missed 7 of 8), Price (missed 4 of 8). Out: Rashid Shaheed

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Cardinals gain −0.5 yards after the catch vs expected (3rd-worst). Seahawks allow −0.5 (the best tackling).

   Takeaways. Cardinals throw an interception on 3% of passes (8th-most). Seahawks pick off 3% (4th-most).

   On the ground. Cardinals average 4.1 yards a carry (19th of 32). Seahawks allow 3.6 (the fewest).

   Minshew's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.53 seconds on average, scrambles on 5.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Allgeier to the left: 5.4 yards a carry there (37% of his runs), and Seahawks give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   McBride draws 33% of the Cardinals targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Darnold vs the blitz: 7.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Cardinals blitz on 29% of dropbacks (19th of 32).

   Darnold's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.93 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.0% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Wilson to the left: 4.2 yards a carry there (29% of his runs), and Cardinals give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   4th downs: Seahawks go for it 0.7× as often as an average coach in the same spots.

   Smith-Njigba draws 30% of the Seahawks targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Small sample: Gardner Minshew's numbers rest on 35 dropbacks, so they are shrunk toward a typical backup.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   McBride leads the Cardinals in receiving yards in 48% of sims.

   Minshew throws for 300+ in 7%.

   Allgeier runs for 100+ in 5%.

   McBride scores a touchdown in 36%, the likeliest on his team.

   Smith-Njigba leads the Seahawks in receiving yards in 71% of sims.

   Darnold throws for 300+ in 17%.

   Wilson runs for 100+ in 5%.

   Smith-Njigba scores a touchdown in 50%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Cardinals run for 110+ yards (27% of sims), they win 54%, up from 25%.

   When Allgeier runs for 60+ (20% of sims), they win 54%, up from 25%.

   When Seahawks run for 160+ yards (29% of sims), they win 96%, up from 74%.

7. Reality check

   Cardinals score 21.9 a game (last 8). In the sims: 16.4 against this defense.

   Seahawks score 23.1 a game (last 8). In the sims: 25.3 against this defense.

   Minshew: 188 pass yds a game (last 1). In the sims: 195.

   McBride: 8.2 catches, 68 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 7.8, 68.

   Allgeier: 40.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 39.

   Darnold: 211.1 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 235.

   Smith-Njigba: 8 catches, 123.1 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 6.3, 90.

   Wilson: 57.6 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 42.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Seahawks win 74% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (SEA −10.5): the Seahawks cover in 45%.

   Total 41.5: over in 48%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.