Buccaneers vs Bears prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stCHI 52-yd field goal 0–3
2. 1stTB 42-yd field goal 3–3
3. 1stCHI Swift 15-yd TD run 3–10
4. 2ndTB 23-yd field goal 6–10
5. 2ndCHI 24-yd field goal 6–13
6. 4thCHI Williams to Odunze, 6-yd TD 13–20
7. 4thTB Mayfield to Godwin, 33-yd TD 20–20
8. 4thCHI Williams to Burden, 3-yd TD 20–27

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Buccaneers blitz on 38% of dropbacks (2nd-most in the NFL).

   Bears blitz on 35% of dropbacks (5th-most in the NFL).

   Buccaneers use play action on 20% of dropbacks (4th-fewest).

   Bears use play action on 30% of dropbacks (the most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Buccaneers: QB Mayfield · Godwin 25% of targets · Otton 19% of targets · Hurst 17% of targets · Irving 53% of carries. Out: Emeka Egbuka

   Bears: QB Williams · Loveland 23% of targets · Burden 22% of targets · Odunze 18% of targets · Swift 64% of carries. Out: Case Keenum

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Bears gain +0.0 yards after the catch vs expected (10th-best). Buccaneers allow +0.2 (4th-worst tackling).

   On the ground. Buccaneers average 4.4 yards a carry (8th-best). Bears allow 4.4 (8th-most).

   Takeaways. Buccaneers throw an interception on 2% of passes (11th-most). Bears pick off 3% (5th-most).

   Mayfield vs the blitz: 4.5 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bears blitz on 35% of dropbacks (5th-most).

   Mayfield's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.89 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Irving to the left: 5.7 yards a carry there (45% of his runs), and Bears give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Godwin draws 25% of the Buccaneers targets and averages 3.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Williams vs the blitz: 7.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Buccaneers blitz on 38% of dropbacks (2nd-most).

   Williams's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.21 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.3% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Swift to the right: 4.2 yards a carry there (53% of his runs), and Buccaneers give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Loveland draws 23% of the Bears targets and averages 3.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Godwin leads the Buccaneers in receiving yards in 37% of sims.

   Mayfield throws for 300+ in 6%.

   Irving runs for 100+ in 19%.

   Irving scores a touchdown in 51%, the likeliest on his team.

   Burden leads the Bears in receiving yards in 34% of sims.

   Williams throws for 300+ in 19%.

   Swift runs for 100+ in 28%.

   Swift scores a touchdown in 53%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Buccaneers run for 160+ yards (31% of sims), they win 73%, up from 37%.

   When Irving runs for 90+ (25% of sims), they win 70%, up from 37%.

   When Bears run for 160+ yards (30% of sims), they win 91%, up from 61%.

7. Reality check

   Buccaneers score 22.2 a game (last 8). In the sims: 21 against this defense.

   Bears score 26.8 a game (last 8). In the sims: 25.5 against this defense.

   Mayfield: 135.8 pass yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 197.

   Godwin: 3.4 catches, 30.4 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.6, 53.

   Irving: 91 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 67.

   Williams: 253.4 pass yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 239.

   Burden: 5.2 catches, 68.4 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.8, 61.

   Swift: 68.1 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 78.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Bears win 61% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (CHI −6): the Bears cover in 46%.

   Total 46.5: over in 49%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.