Browns vs Saints prediction
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Caesars Superdome. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Saints 26, Browns 20.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Saints won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Deshaun Watson Browns 274 pass yds
- Quinshon Judkins Browns 46 rush yds
- KC Concepcion Browns 3 rec · 80 yds
- Tyler Shough Saints 291 pass yds · 2 TD
- Kendre Miller Saints 49 rush yds
- Chris Olave Saints 6 rec · 88 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stCLE Watson 1-yd TD run 7–0
- 1stCLE Turnover returned for a TD 14–0
- 2ndNO Shough to Vele, 18-yd TD 14–7
- 2ndCLE 36-yd field goal 17–7
- 2ndNO 45-yd field goal 17–10
- 2ndNO 50-yd field goal 17–13
- 3rdCLE 50-yd field goal 20–13
- 3rdNO Shough to Fant, 14-yd TD 20–20
- 4thNO 24-yd field goal 20–23
- 4thNO 50-yd field goal 20–26
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 21/31 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 16 | 46 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Dylan Sampson | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC Concepcion | 3 | 5 | 80 | 0 | 46 |
| Denzel Boston | 4 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 22 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 7 | 12 | 65 | 0 | 22 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 32 |
| Dylan Sampson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| Isaiah Bond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 24/35 | 291 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 14 | 49 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 9 | 88 | 0 | 22 |
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 5 | 64 | 1 | 28 |
| Bryce Lance | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 39 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 14 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 16 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 10 |
| Barion Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Oscar Delp | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
The breakdown
The setup
Saints use play action on 18% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest).
Who's in the sim
Browns: QB Watson · Boston 23% of targets · Fannin 22% of targets · Concepcion 18% of targets · Judkins 62% of carries
Saints: QB Shough · Olave 25% of targets · Vele 17% of targets · Johnson 15% of targets · Miller 49% of carries
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
The pass rush. Browns take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (the most). Saints get home on 7% (7th-most), blitzing on 33% of dropbacks.
After the catch. Saints gain −0.7 yards after the catch vs expected (the worst). Browns allow −0.2 (21st of 32 tackling).
Takeaways. Browns throw an interception on 2% of passes (10th-fewest). Saints pick off 2% (10th-fewest).
Watson vs the blitz: 5.3 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Saints blitz on 33% of dropbacks (11th of 32).
Watson's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.82 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Judkins to the right: 3.8 yards a carry there (39% of his runs), and Saints give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Boston draws 23% of the Browns targets and averages 2.2 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Shough vs the blitz: 5.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Browns blitz on 27% of dropbacks (9th-fewest).
Shough's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.69 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Browns let quarterbacks escape 17% less often than average.
Miller to the left: 2.9 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and Browns give up +0.1 yards a carry on that side.
Olave draws 25% of the Saints targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Boston leads the Browns in receiving yards in 38% of sims.
Watson throws for 300+ in 8%.
Judkins runs for 100+ in 15%.
Judkins scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.
Olave leads the Saints in receiving yards in 44% of sims.
Shough throws for 300+ in 16%.
Miller runs for 100+ in 9%.
Olave scores a touchdown in 36%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Browns run for 130+ yards (32% of sims), they win 73%, up from 41%.
When Saints run for 130+ yards (29% of sims), they win 88%, up from 58%.
When Judkins runs for 80+ (27% of sims), they win 73%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Browns score 17.4 a game (last 8). In the sims: 18.8 against this defense.
Saints score 23.1 a game (last 7). In the sims: 21.8 against this defense.
Watson: 225.8 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 205.
Boston: 3.2 catches, 51.4 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 3.7, 54.
Judkins: 48.9 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 61.
Shough: 247.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 230.
Olave: 7 catches, 90.9 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 5.3, 63.
Miller: 26.5 rush yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 49.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Saints win 58% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (NO −2.5): the Saints cover in 53%.
Total 43.5: over in 40%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NFL board
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.