Broncos vs Panthers prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stDEN Nix to Sutton, 21-yd TD 7–0
2. 2ndDEN 55-yd field goal 10–0
3. 2ndCAR Young to Hubbard, 1-yd TD 10–7
4. 2ndDEN 41-yd field goal 13–7
5. 3rdCAR 43-yd field goal 13–10
6. 3rdCAR 55-yd field goal 13–13
7. 4thCAR 27-yd field goal 13–16
8. 4thDEN to Waddle, 12-yd TD 20–16
9. 4thCAR Young to McMillan, 12-yd TD 20–23

Box score

The breakdown

1. Who's in the sim

   Broncos: QB Nix · Waddle 24% of targets · Sutton 17% of targets · Engram 12% of targets · Dobbins 43% of carries. Back: Coleman (missed 4 of 8). Out: RJ Harvey

   Panthers: QB Young · McMillan 23% of targets · Coker 19% of targets · Hubbard 12% of targets · Hubbard 77% of carries

2. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

3. What decides it

   The pass rush. Broncos take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest). Panthers get home on 6% (3rd-fewest), blitzing on 33% of dropbacks.

   Through the air. Panthers complete −0.6 pts more passes than expected (18th of 32). Broncos allow −2.3 pts vs expected (4th-least generous).

   Takeaways. Broncos throw an interception on 2% of passes (4th-fewest). Panthers pick off 2% (18th of 32).

   Nix vs the blitz: 5.8 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Panthers blitz on 33% of dropbacks (8th-most).

   Nix's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.91 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.5% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Dobbins to the left: 3.7 yards a carry there (36% of his runs), and Panthers give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   4th downs: Broncos go for it 0.7× as often as an average coach in the same spots.

   Waddle draws 24% of the Broncos targets and averages 3.3 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Young vs the blitz: 5.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Broncos blitz on 33% of dropbacks (9th-most).

   Young's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.86 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.2% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Hubbard to the left: 4.9 yards a carry there (42% of his runs), and Broncos give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   McMillan draws 23% of the Panthers targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

4. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Waddle leads the Broncos in receiving yards in 44% of sims.

   Nix throws for 300+ in 10%.

   Coleman runs for 100+ in 8%.

   Coleman scores a touchdown in 37%, the likeliest on his team.

   McMillan leads the Panthers in receiving yards in 41% of sims.

   Young throws for 300+ in 16%.

   Hubbard runs for 100+ in 37%.

   Hubbard scores a touchdown in 59%, the likeliest on his team.

5. What swings it

   When Broncos run for 140+ yards (31% of sims), they win 83%, up from 49%.

   When Panthers run for 140+ yards (31% of sims), they win 84%, up from 50%.

   When Hubbard runs for 120+ (25% of sims), they win 86%, up from 50%.

6. Reality check

   Broncos score 21.5 a game (last 8). In the sims: 21.6 against this defense.

   Panthers score 25.4 a game (last 7). In the sims: 21.8 against this defense.

   Nix: 186.6 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 214.

   Waddle: 3.6 catches, 39.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.6, 57.

   Coleman: 44.7 rush yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 47.

   Young: 273.4 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 231.

   McMillan: 5.8 catches, 81.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.3, 57.

   Hubbard: 68.8 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 91.

7. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Panthers win 50% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (DEN −2.5): the Broncos cover in 45%.

   Total 43.5: over in 48%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

8. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Chuba Hubbardanytime TD
     59%of sims
     54%books imply