Bills vs Vikings prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stBUF Allen to Coleman, 7-yd TD 6–0
2. 1stBUF 55-yd field goal 9–0
3. 2ndBUF Cook 7-yd TD run 16–0
4. 2ndMIN 54-yd field goal 16–3
5. 3rdMIN 37-yd field goal 16–6
6. 3rdBUF Allen 3-yd TD run 23–6
7. 4thMIN 32-yd field goal 23–9
8. 4thBUF 32-yd field goal 26–9
9. 4thMIN Murray to Addison, 28-yd TD 26–16

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Vikings start Kyler Murray, who took 42% of their dropbacks in the games behind these ratings, so their passing numbers lean on his own.

   Vikings blitz on 55% of dropbacks (the most in the NFL).

   Vikings use play action on 28% of dropbacks (2nd-most).

2. Who's in the sim

   Bills: QB Allen · Shakir 18% of targets · Moore 17% of targets · Kincaid 16% of targets · Cook 58% of carries. Back: Moore (missed 2 of 7)

   Vikings: QB Murray · Jefferson 27% of targets · Hockenson 20% of targets · Addison 20% of targets · Mason 41% of carries. Back: Mason (missed 4 of 7)

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Bills gain +0.4 yards after the catch vs expected (2nd-best). Vikings allow −0.0 (12th of 32 tackling).

   The pass rush. Bills take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (16th of 32). Vikings get home on 9% (the most), blitzing on 55% of dropbacks.

   Through the air. Vikings complete −0.2 pts more passes than expected (17th of 32). Bills allow −1.8 pts vs expected (5th-least generous).

   Allen vs the blitz: 7.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Vikings blitz on 55% of dropbacks (the most).

   Allen's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.89 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Cook to the left: 5.0 yards a carry there (33% of his runs), and Vikings give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Shakir draws 18% of the Bills targets and averages 4.0 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Murray vs the blitz: 4.1 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bills blitz on 34% of dropbacks (7th-most).

   Murray's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.88 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Mason up the middle: 4.0 yards a carry there (25% of his runs), and Bills give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.

   Jefferson draws 27% of the Vikings targets and averages 3.0 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Kincaid leads the Bills in receiving yards in 29% of sims.

   Allen throws for 300+ in 10%.

   Cook runs for 100+ in 31%.

   Cook scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.

   Jefferson leads the Vikings in receiving yards in 43% of sims.

   Murray throws for 300+ in 4%.

   Mason runs for 100+ in 7%.

   Jones scores a touchdown in 35%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Vikings run for 140+ yards (32% of sims), they win 73%, up from 38%.

   When Bills run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 90%, up from 61%.

   When Cook runs for 110+ (25% of sims), they win 89%, up from 61%.

7. Reality check

   Bills score 33.3 a game (last 7). In the sims: 23.5 against this defense.

   Vikings score 20 a game (last 7). In the sims: 19.5 against this defense.

   Allen: 256.1 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 216.

   Moore: 4 catches, 65 yds a game (last 4). In the sims: 2.8, 38.

   Cook: 90.2 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 83.

   Murray: 170.3 pass yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 184.

   Jefferson: 5.1 catches, 62.6 yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 4.6, 54.

   Jones: 65.4 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 43.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Bills win 61% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (BUF −3.5): the Bills cover in 53%.

   Total 45.5: over in 40%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.