Bills vs Jets prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stBUF Allen to Moore, 8-yd TD 6–0
2. 2ndBUF 41-yd field goal 9–0
3. 3rdBUF Allen to Cook, 14-yd TD 16–0
4. 3rdNYJ Turnover returned for a TD 16–7
5. 4thBUF Allen to Coleman, 17-yd TD 23–14
6. 4thNYJ Smith to Taylor, 5-yd TD 23–20
7. 4thBUF 42-yd field goal 26–20

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Jets blitz on 34% of dropbacks (5th-most in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   Bills: QB Allen · Shakir 18% of targets · Moore 18% of targets · Kincaid 16% of targets · Cook 60% of carries. Back: Moore (missed 2 of 8)

   Jets: QB Smith · Wilson 21% of targets · Mitchell 18% of targets · Cooper 14% of targets · Hall 45% of carries. Back: Hall (missed 5 of 9), Cooper (missed 4 of 9), Mitchell (missed 4 of 9)

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Bills gain +0.4 yards after the catch vs expected (2nd-best). Jets allow +0.3 (2nd-worst tackling).

   On the ground. Bills average 4.5 yards a carry (7th-best). Jets allow 4.2 (14th of 32).

   Through the air. Bills complete +2.3 pts more passes than expected (4th-best). Jets allow −0.3 pts vs expected (18th of 32 generous).

   Allen vs the blitz: 7.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Jets blitz on 34% of dropbacks (5th-most).

   Allen's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.88 seconds on average, scrambles on 7.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Cook to the left: 4.4 yards a carry there (32% of his runs), and Jets give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Shakir draws 18% of the Bills targets and averages 4.0 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Smith vs the blitz: 5.8 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bills blitz on 34% of dropbacks (6th-most).

   Smith's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.88 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Hall to the right: 4.1 yards a carry there (30% of his runs), and Bills give up +0.0 yards a carry on that side.

   Wilson draws 21% of the Jets targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Kincaid leads the Bills in receiving yards in 27% of sims.

   Allen throws for 300+ in 14%.

   Cook runs for 100+ in 34%.

   Cook scores a touchdown in 49%, the likeliest on his team.

   Wilson leads the Jets in receiving yards in 33% of sims.

   Smith throws for 300+ in 8%.

   Allen runs for 100+ in 6%.

   Allen scores a touchdown in 34%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Jets run for 130+ yards (28% of sims), they win 57%, up from 26%.

   When Allen runs for 60+ (25% of sims), they win 49%, up from 26%.

   When Bills run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 93%, up from 73%.

7. Reality check

   Bills score 32 a game (last 8). In the sims: 27.2 against this defense.

   Jets score 20.2 a game (last 9). In the sims: 19.2 against this defense.

   Allen: 253.4 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 227.

   Moore: 3.8 catches, 57 yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 3, 42.

   Cook: 101.8 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 86.

   Smith: 232.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 201.

   Cooper: 6.3 catches, 92 yds a game (last 3). In the sims: 2.9, 37.

   Allen: 69.8 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 44.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Bills win 73% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (BUF −8.5): the Bills cover in 48%.

   Total 50.5: over in 37%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Dawson Knox1+ catches
     85%of sims
     93Our Rating
     85%books imply
   • Dalton Kincaid1+ catches
     95%of sims
     91Our Rating
   • DJ Moore1+ catches
     93%of sims
     89Our Rating
   • James Cook50+ rush yds
     79%of sims
     89Our Rating
     92%books imply
   • Keon Coleman1+ catches
     92%of sims
     87Our Rating
     95%books imply