Bengals vs Falcons prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stCIN 43-yd field goal 3–0
2. 2ndATL Robinson 1-yd TD run 3–7
3. 2ndCIN 37-yd field goal 6–7
4. 2ndATL Penix to Herbert, 2-yd TD 6–14
5. 3rdCIN Burrow 1-yd TD run 13–14
6. 3rdATL Penix to London, 41-yd TD 13–21
7. 4thATL Robinson 2-yd TD run 13–28
8. 4thCIN Burrow to Chase, 1-yd TD 20–28

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Bengals blitz on 23% of dropbacks (the fewest in the NFL).

   Bengals use play action on 17% of dropbacks (the fewest).

2. Who's in the sim

   Bengals: QB Burrow · Chase 27% of targets · Higgins 24% of targets · Brown 16% of targets · Brown 56% of carries

   Falcons: QB Penix · London 26% of targets · Pitts 19% of targets · Dotson 16% of targets · Robinson 82% of carries

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   After the catch. Falcons gain +0.3 yards after the catch vs expected (4th-best). Bengals allow +0.7 (the worst tackling).

   On the ground. Falcons average 4.6 yards a carry (5th-best). Bengals allow 4.6 (3rd-most).

   Through the air. Bengals complete +3.0 pts more passes than expected (2nd-best). Falcons allow −0.0 pts vs expected (14th of 32 generous).

   Burrow vs the blitz: 6.4 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Falcons blitz on 30% of dropbacks (16th of 32).

   Burrow's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.70 seconds on average, scrambles on 3.8% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Falcons let quarterbacks escape 16% less often than average.

   Brown up the middle: 3.9 yards a carry there (27% of his runs), and Falcons give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Chase draws 27% of the Bengals targets and averages 3.1 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Penix vs the blitz: 5.9 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Bengals blitz on 23% of dropbacks (the fewest).

   Penix's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.66 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.1% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).

   Robinson to the right: 5.3 yards a carry there (34% of his runs), and Bengals give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   London draws 26% of the Falcons targets and averages 2.9 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Higgins leads the Bengals in receiving yards in 45% of sims.

   Burrow throws for 300+ in 27%.

   Brown runs for 100+ in 9%.

   Higgins scores a touchdown in 43%, the likeliest on his team.

   London leads the Falcons in receiving yards in 47% of sims.

   Penix throws for 300+ in 11%.

   Robinson runs for 100+ in 70%.

   Robinson scores a touchdown in 72%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Bengals run for 110+ yards (30% of sims), they win 74%, up from 38%.

   When Falcons run for 200+ yards (28% of sims), they win 93%, up from 60%.

   When Brown runs for 70+ (23% of sims), they win 73%, up from 38%.

7. Reality check

   Bengals score 29.4 a game (last 7). In the sims: 22.7 against this defense.

   Falcons score 21.4 a game (last 8). In the sims: 26.9 against this defense.

   Burrow: 293.9 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 255.

   Higgins: 6.1 catches, 99.9 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 5.6, 79.

   Brown: 51.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 49.

   Penix: 213.7 pass yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 220.

   London: 4.9 catches, 80 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.5, 64.

   Robinson: 97.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 136.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Falcons win 60% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (CIN −3): the Bengals cover in 32%.

   Total 52.5: over in 40%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: the sims vs the price

   • Bijan Robinson100+ rush yds
     70%of sims
     50%books imply
   • Chase Brown4+ catches
     60%of sims
     55%books imply