49ers vs Cowboys prediction

How it played out: scoring plays

1. 1stSF Purdy to McCaffrey, 8-yd TD 7–0
2. 1stSF Purdy to Kittle, 11-yd TD 14–0
3. 2ndSF McCaffrey 1-yd TD run 21–0
4. 2ndSF Purdy 8-yd TD run 28–0
5. 2ndDAL Prescott to Lamb, 1-yd TD 28–7
6. 3rdDAL Williams 57-yd TD run 28–14
7. 3rdDAL Prescott 8-yd TD run 28–21
8. 4thSF 36-yd field goal 31–21

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Cowboys blitz on 26% of dropbacks (4th-fewest in the NFL).

2. Who's in the sim

   49ers: QB Purdy · Kittle 27% of targets · McCaffrey 19% of targets · Watkins 9% of targets · McCaffrey 45% of carries

   Cowboys: QB Prescott · Lamb 34% of targets · Pickens 23% of targets · Flournoy 18% of targets · Williams 86% of carries. Out: Tyler Goodson, Kendre Miller

3. What's mapped in

   • Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
   • Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
   • Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
   • Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
   • Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
   • Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.

4. What decides it

   The pass rush. Cowboys take a sack on 5% of dropbacks (5th-fewest). 49ers get home on 5% (the fewest), blitzing on 28% of dropbacks.

   Through the air. 49ers complete +2.6 pts more passes than expected (3rd-best). Cowboys allow +2.4 pts vs expected (4th-most generous).

   After the catch. Cowboys gain −0.4 yards after the catch vs expected (6th-worst). 49ers allow −0.4 (6th-best tackling).

   Purdy vs the blitz: 8.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Cowboys blitz on 26% of dropbacks (4th-fewest).

   Purdy's pocket: gets the ball out in 3.08 seconds on average, scrambles on 6.7% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Cowboys let quarterbacks escape 16% more often than average.

   McCaffrey to the left: 4.3 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Cowboys give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.

   Kittle draws 27% of the 49ers targets and averages 3.4 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

   Prescott vs the blitz: 6.6 yards a dropback (league 6.1). 49ers blitz on 28% of dropbacks (11th-fewest).

   Prescott's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.80 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.9% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). 49ers let quarterbacks escape 17% less often than average.

   Williams to the left: 4.8 yards a carry there (38% of his runs), and 49ers give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.

   Lamb draws 34% of the Cowboys targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Kittle leads the 49ers in receiving yards in 56% of sims.

   Purdy throws for 300+ in 21%.

   McCaffrey runs for 100+ in 14%.

   McCaffrey scores a touchdown in 63%, the likeliest on his team.

   Lamb leads the Cowboys in receiving yards in 54% of sims.

   Prescott throws for 300+ in 24%.

   Williams runs for 100+ in 32%.

   Lamb scores a touchdown in 56%, the likeliest on his team.

6. What swings it

   When Williams runs for 110+ (26% of sims), they win 67%, up from 35%.

   When Cowboys run for 120+ yards (31% of sims), they win 64%, up from 35%.

   When 49ers run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 89%, up from 64%.

7. Reality check

   49ers score 29.4 a game (last 8). In the sims: 29.3 against this defense.

   Cowboys score 27.3 a game (last 9). In the sims: 24.2 against this defense.

   Purdy: 247.5 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 244.

   Kittle: 4.8 catches, 60.4 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 6.2, 74.

   McCaffrey: 57.1 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 61.

   Prescott: 275.8 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 248.

   Lamb: 8.1 catches, 107.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 7.6, 92.

   Williams: 73.5 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 84.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The 49ers win 64% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (SF −4.5): the 49ers cover in 52%.

   Total 55.5: over in 42%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Deebo Samuel Sr.2+ catches
     54%of sims
     94Our Rating
     88%books imply
   • Brock Purdy1+ pass TDs
     89%of sims
     92Our Rating
     95%books imply
   • Kaelon Black10+ rush yds
     91%of sims
     90Our Rating
     92%books imply
   • Javonte Williams1+ catches
     87%of sims
     89Our Rating
   • Deebo Samuel Sr.20+ rec yds
     42%of sims
     88Our Rating
     78%books imply